ALERT #10 ON HURRICANE MELISSA issued by The Bahamas Department of Meteorology, Monday, October 27th, 2025, at 9 PM EDT.
BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
FORECAST OFFICE SECTION
Telephone: 377-7178 / 377-7040
Fax No. 377-5275
Nassau, Bahamas
Website: https://met.gov.bs
Email: meteo@batelnet.bs
ALERT #10 ON HURRICANE MELISSA issued by The Bahamas Department of
Meteorology, Monday, October 27th, 2025, at 9 PM EDT.
…MELISSA POISED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-
THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY…
…TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
THE ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, ON TUESDAY, AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY…
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Central and Southeast Bahamas.
This includes Exuma and its Cays, Ragged Island, Rum Cay, Long Island, San
Salvador, Cat Island, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, Mayaguana, and
Inagua.
A Hurricane Warning means that Hurricane conditions are expected in the
mentioned islands within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the Turks
and Caicos Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning means that Tropical Storm conditions are expected
in the mentioned islands within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that Hurricane conditions could be experienced
within the mentioned islands within 48 hours.
At 8 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.6
degrees north and longitude 78.6 degrees west, or about 155 miles Southwest of
Kingston, Jamaica, 435 miles South-southwest of Duncan Town, Ragged Island,
480 miles Southwest of Salina Point, Acklins, 435 miles Southwest of Matthew
Town, Inagua, 530 miles Southwest of Providenciales, Turks and Caicos
Islands, 540 miles Southwest of Abraham’s Bay, Mayaguana and 580 miles
South of New Providence.
Hurricane Melissa is moving slowly toward the northwest near 2 miles per hour. A
slow turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northeast at slightly faster forward speed on Tuesday. A northeastward motion with
a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast
track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica by early Tuesday,
across Southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the Southeast or Central
Bahamas on Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-
storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.
Maximum sustained winds are near 175 miles per hour with higher gusts. Melissa is
a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall in Jamaica.
However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an
extremely powerful major hurricane and will still be at hurricane strength when it
moves across the Southeast Bahamas.
Residents in the Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands should have
completed preparations for the possibility of Tropical Storm and Hurricane
conditions beginning late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, and in the
Central Bahamas on Wednesday through Thursday. Residents in the Northern and
Northwest Bahamas should closely monitor Alerts issued by the Bahamas
Department of Meteorology and be ready to prepare for possible Tropical Storm or
Hurricane conditions in the next few days.
Potential Impacts:
Hurricane Melissa, should it continue to move along the forecast track, will bring
prolonged periods of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal inundation to the
islands in the Central and Southeast Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos
Islands, beginning Tuesday through Thursday. However, the magnitude of potential
impacts depends on the intensity of Melissa as it moves through the Central and
Southeast Bahamas.
Melissa is forecast to interact with major mountainous landmarks, such as those in
Jamaica and Cuba or Hispaniola, which could potentially weaken the system slightly
as it nears the Southeast and Central Bahamas late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rainfall Amount:
A total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected over the Southeast Bahamas on
Tuesday and into Wednesday, resulting in severe flooding in the islands.
Storm Surge:
Storm surge of 4 to 6 feet above normally dry ground is possible in the Southeast
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.
The next Alert on Hurricane Melissa will be issued at 12 MIDNIGHT EDT.
Issued by: Mary Butler